Above-Normal 2019 Florida Hurricane Season Update

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center increases chance for "above-normal" in 2019 Florida hurricane season update.

On August 8th, 2019 forecasters for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a 2019 Florida hurricane season update saying "conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity" during the 2019 Florida hurricane season.

CPC's updated forecasts for the 2019 Florida hurricane season are as follows:

  • A thirty-five percent [35%] chance of a near-normal season
  • A forty-five percent [45%] chance of an above-normal season
  • A twenty percent [20%] chance of a below-normal season
  • Ten to seventeen [10-17] named storms (winds of thirty-nine [39] mph or greater)
  • Five to nine [5-9] hurricanes (winds of seventy-four [74] mph or greater)
  • Two to four [2-4] major hurricanes (winds of one-hundred-eleven [111] mph or greater)

(For reference, an average hurricane season produces twelve [12] named storms, six [6] hurricanes, and three [3] major hurricanes.)

An updated NOAA graphic showing 2019 Florida hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.
A NOAA graphic showing updated 2019 Florida hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.

NOAA notes this increase in likelihood of an above-normal season is due to three factors:

  • The current Pacific Ocean El Nino has ended returning conditions to neutral
  • Conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity Atlantic hurricane era (1995-present) are more conducive
  • Landfall predictions are only accurate within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline

Two named storms have already formed so far this year, and we are just now entering the peak months of the 2019 Florida hurricane season. Historically, 95% of all hurricanes and major hurricanes occur between August and October. 

An updated NOAA graphic showing 2019 Florida hurricane season tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.
An NOAA graphic showing updated 2019 Florida hurricane season tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.

Get ready now and share the message:

  • Determine your vulnerability to hurricane storm surge, inland flooding, and strong winds
  • Develop an evacuation plan and ensure your disaster supply kit is ready
  • Acquire enough supplies to last several days
  • Document and share your evacuation plan with friends and family
  • Communicate with your neighbors about their plans as well
  • Call Tint Heaven now to schedule your no cost Comfort Survey. 

Sources: NOAA increases chance for above-normal hurricane season2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season OutlookTropical Cyclone Climatology.

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